Trump is Winning: The Latest 2024 Election Forecast

The 2024 presidential race is heating up, and recent predictions show that former President Trump is leading Vice President Harris in both the electoral college and popular votes.

Trump Expected to Win More Electoral Votes

Forecasts suggest that Trump has a strong advantage in the electoral college, which decides the presidency. According to the latest model, Trump could receive around 306 electoral votes, while Harris is projected to get about 232. In a worst-case scenario, Trump might get 276 electoral votes, while Harris’s upper range reaches 262 electoral votes. This gives Trump a comfortable lead in this critical measure.

High Probability of Trump Winning

The model currently gives Trump a more than 95% chance of winning based on the latest data, making him the clear favorite at this stage of the race.

Closer Race in the Popular Vote

When it comes to the popular vote—the total number of votes each candidate receives across the country—the forecast shows a tighter race. Trump has a slight edge, leading by about 1.2 points. However, there’s a possibility that Harris could still take a small lead, with her range reaching up to 1.3 points ahead. This shows that, while Trump leads overall, the popular vote could still go either way.

How These Predictions Are Made

The forecast uses a mix of data, including:

-Current polls

-Votes that have been reported

-Expected results from areas where votes haven’t been fully counted

-Voting trends from past elections

-Any new developments in the election